Win rate and reward:risk trade off against each other directly — a 40% win rate at 2:1 beats a 60% win rate at 1:1. Enter both below to see your real expectancy and the breakeven win rate you actually need to clear.
Expectancy per trade
+0.35R
per unit risked, on average
Breakeven win rate
33.3%
at this R:R, below this you lose money long-run
At a 2:1 reward:risk, you need to win more than 33.3% of trades just to break even. At 45%, your edge is real — the math works in your favor, before commissions and slippage eat into it.
The same R means a different dollar figure on every contract. Convert any move between points, ticks, and dollars using CME's published specs — pick the contract, enter the move in whichever unit you have.
Points
10
Ticks
40
Dollars
$500
E-mini S&P 500: 1 tick = 0.25 pts = $12.5 · 1 point = $50 per contract. CME published specs, not estimates.
Every futures prop-firm evaluation and funded account lives or dies on this math. Confidence in a setup doesn't change the arithmetic — only your win rate and your reward:risk ratio do.
This is the same calculator built into Firmtrack's demo, where it's run against a trader's own logged trades instead of hypothetical numbers — see the full research and methodology behind it.